Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 11.938348 13.684395 15.568320 17.748532 20.198425 22.862538 25.975081
2025-04-06 9.286006 11.622369 14.341200 17.724430 21.805992 26.554680 32.480311
2025-04-13 7.469082 9.910387 12.896364 16.791387 21.709155 27.680388 35.444431
2025-04-20 6.643973 9.274462 12.633178 17.194628 23.179960 30.712377 40.846978
2025-04-27 5.990928 8.742118 12.388706 17.516160 24.469248 33.489145 45.979291
2025-05-04 5.312739 8.084576 11.890001 17.417172 25.144315 35.452092 50.105954
2025-05-11 4.702580 7.445368 11.337465 17.164275 25.543770 37.012751 53.714703
2025-05-18 4.266476 7.007590 11.017738 17.190135 26.297866 39.056822 58.044326
2025-05-25 3.937054 6.692479 10.839654 17.388941 27.284144 41.444280 62.936847
2025-06-01 3.596884 6.323486 10.542544 17.373325 27.932018 43.353157 67.205007
2025-06-08 3.263947 5.931211 10.171930 17.206263 28.322493 44.880336 70.957598
2025-06-15 3.035394 5.688155 10.013058 17.348957 29.178729 47.118141 75.838983
2025-06-22 2.899425 5.596130 10.099507 17.902076 30.727770 50.508939 82.670578
2025-06-29 2.643632 5.269245 9.769683 17.748057 31.135566 52.159997 86.909672
2025-07-06 2.292670 4.733204 9.036724 16.857684 30.275112 51.758684 87.895668
2025-07-13 2.182253 4.633314 9.053831 17.246458 31.548508 54.798401 94.445273
2025-07-20 2.071900 4.522131 9.039881 17.574592 32.728443 57.727701 100.924915
2025-07-27 1.911052 4.295569 8.796509 17.473282 33.156512 59.430674 105.462297
2025-08-03 1.745693 4.042997 8.483568 17.220365 33.297167 60.648580 109.231611
2025-08-10 1.629631 3.880645 8.328578 17.246048 33.927152 62.709291 114.479560
2025-08-17 1.543102 3.772335 8.269368 17.445523 34.875626 65.346557 120.796049
2025-08-24 1.439918 3.617364 8.105034 17.429830 35.423109 67.302817 126.008858
2025-08-31 1.329854 3.435723 7.872063 17.262292 35.673434 68.738527 130.361058